The Four Horsemen, Part Three – The Black Horse

Of all the horsemen of the Apocalypse, I have been dreading the Black Horse the most.

Why?

Because I could see how it would ride, and the utter devastation it would cause. In fact, I’ve been yelling about this particular horse for eleven years. No one has been listening, so I’m a little surprised that we made it this far.

Thankfully, we’ve been able to delay the moment when the Black Horse rides, but delay is the best that we can do. And, the reason for that, has everything to do with energy.

When we hit the limit to how much we can produce, our economy will collapse, and our civilization will die.

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The Four Horsemen

Part Three – The Black Horse

Before I get started, November 9th marks the beginning of my life in Asia. It was 30 years ago, in 1992, when I landed in Israel and began studying and then working in Jerusalem. Today, I’m on the other side of Asia, in Taiwan and can hardly believe the twists and turns God has led me through.

If you choose to follow God, He will take you places, and you will see things that you never expected.

Having said that, it was a good thing that I did not know all this when I set foot on the tarmac at Ben Gurion airport. I might have run screaming in the other direction.

 – JL

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Back in the 1950s, M. King Hubbert realized that we had a problem. Oil fields were declining at a rather fast rate, and it looked like that rate was becoming predictable. So, Dr. Hubbert took his observations and developed a model to forecast US oil production. That model predicted a peak in US oil production in the early ’70s. And, that is exactly what happened.

Dr. Hubbert then expanded his model to try and forecast global oil production. He predicted that oil would peak in 1995. However, he did say that manipulations by Arab oil companies might shift the peak out to 2005.

Here’s a clip of M. King Hubbert describing global oil production in 1975:

1976 Hubbert Clip

Then in 1998, two petroleum geologists, Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrère, took another look at Hubbert’s Peak and updated his model. According to their calculations the peak in oil production would happen in 2005. And, right on schedule, oil volumes began falling in late 2005.

This decrease in oil production led to a dramatic increase in gasoline prices in 2006, which precipitated the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008. I had just just returned to US from Israel in late 2006, and remember looking at the price of gas as I was filling up my car.

I knew immediately that there was no way that the US economy could survive such a high price of gasoline. And, sure enough, it didn’t. However, there was one thing that saved our civilization:

Hydraulic Fracturing

We call it ‘fracking’ and it is an expensive technology that was invented in 1947. We knew that it worked. We knew where we could make it work. But, we also knew that it was a terrible way to produce crude oil. However, when the price of oil gets high enough, it becomes an economically viable way to produce oil. So, we tried it.

In the first few years, investors lost a lot of money, until fracking companies learned how to use fracking efficiently. We have now expanded the use of fracking into other countries boosting oil production around the world. But, there’s a problem.

There’s No Tomorrow

Just because we found more ways to extract oil from the ground, it doesn’t mean that Peak Oil is dead. It is very, very much alive and ready to destroy our civilization if we aren’t careful. And recent history suggests that we are not careful at all.

Here is the video that explains the core problem best:

There’s No Tomorrow (limits to growth & the future)

Why Energy Matters

Go back in time and look at how many farmers we needed to produce enough food for ourselves. By the late 1700s, 90% of America’s population was directly involved in farming. By the late 1800s, we were able to reduce that to half. Once the tractor was invented, it was all downhill from there.

How many Americans today are directly involved in farming today?

About 2%.

Most of the reason for that is oil. Without it, we can’t fuel the tractors that plant and harvest. Without it, we can’t transport our food. Without it, we can’t get to where our food is stored. Without it, we can’t get to the jobs that help pay for it. Without oil, we’re toast.

The problem is that we don’t know when oil will peak. We just know that it will. And, I find it to be very strange that very few are talking about when oil production will reach maximum. Even if you believe in the abiogenic fantasy about oil, there’s no way that oil can replenish at the rate that it is being consumed.

Peak Fertilizer

Then, there’s another problem of monumental concern – peak fertilizer. We are able to feed eight billion people because Fritz Haber discovered an easy way to grab hydrogen from natural gas (methane) and create ammonia. We call it the Haber Process, and without the ammonia it produces, we can only supply enough food to maybe feed three billion people.

This is why Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was such terrible blow to those tracking fertilizer supply. Even before the start of the invasion in February 24th, 2022, we knew that we had a serious problem. Fertilizer companies weren’t getting enough natural gas at the right price to continue operating. So, they were having to shut down. This means that the time is much closer when you will work all day to earn just enough to eat.

Here is what the Book of Revelation says about this moment in time:

5 When He opened the third seal, I heard the third living creature say, “Come and see.” So I looked, and behold, a black horse, and he who sat on it had a pair of scales in his hand. 6 And I heard a voice in the midst of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not harm the oil and the wine.”

 – Revelation 6:5-6 (NKJV)

The problem with the ride of this black horse, is that it will be far too short.

Why?

Because scarcity will soon become mass death, which will be the next horse to ride. But, we will talk about the ride of the Pale Horse, next week.

Energy Is Life

My favorite slogan about all of this, is:

Energy is life.

Plants take energy from the sun and produce food. We consume food to give us the energy to live and work. So, not only is energy life, but it’s literally everything. But, it’s hard to think about everything, especially when life is so precious.

So yes, energy is life. And, when energy declines, life declines.

The slogan ‘energy is life’ was coined by Doomberg. He is one of the most astute commentators on energy, commerce and the state of our society. And because we don’t have very many alternatives to oil and natural gas, our civilization is doomed.

Exponential Growth

M. King Hubbert actually saw the inevitability of this crisis, when he said this:

Our principal constraints are cultural. During the last two centuries we have known nothing but exponential growth and in parallel we have evolved what amounts to an exponential-growth culture, a culture so heavily dependent upon the continuance of exponential growth for its stability that it is incapable of reckoning with problems of non growth.

— M. King Hubbert, “Exponential Growth as a Transient Phenomenon in Human History”

He wanted to save our civilization by keeping it from growing and went a bit off the rails in his effort to find a way out of the catastrophe that lies in our future. And, like most non-Christians, he advocated the crushing of freedom.

Never let a scientist try to solve your problems. You’ll only get more, and his solutions will probably kill you. But, Hubbert was still right about exponential growth.

There have always been limits to how much of anything you can produce. And, when you hit those limits, people go to war. This is human history writ large. And, you literally cannot have a civilization if people are killing their neighbors – such as what Russia is doing to Ukraine.

I am hoping that what’s coming can be delayed as much a possible, but I’m not optimistic. Our leaders are not just ignoring the problem, they’re making it far worse. So, we are accelerating into the opening of this Third Seal.

After that, Death will begin his ride on that Pale Horse (which is actually green).

 

I truly hope that you’ll be ready for this

A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished. – Proverbs 22:3

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Keep this ministry alive with a donation.

Subscribe for free to Revelation Six and receive my articles in your inbox:

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And, read my two books:

https://whengogcomes.com/

https://ezekielsfire.com/

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