What happens when a strong nation needs what a weak nation has?
Ukraine looked weak, and they had what Putin wanted. So, he chose to invade.
What was it that Ukraine had, that Putin wanted?
The second largest natural gas reserves in Europe. The sixth largest coal reserves in the world. Plenty of oil.
Russia wants what Ukraine has, so they went to war to get it. Unfortunately, this will not be the last energy war.
The ride of the Red Horse, was never going to be very fun.
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Putin’s Great Energy Heist
When Russia started drilling for oil and gas in the Arctic, we saw it as a sign that Russia was having difficulty finding new energy reserves. The cost of extracting oil and gas under such difficult conditions would normally keep you from even trying that far up north, so we wondered what Russia would do next.
We weren’t expecting a war.
For those who don’t know, energy reserves have been declining for decades. And, conventional oil production peaked in 2005. Our answer to that was expensive and unconventional. But, we have gotten a little better at unconventional oil and gas extraction, so we’ve kept doing it.
The problem is that Europe stopped trying. They got a bad case of climate hysteria and decided to not develop any of the unconventional energy reserves that they had. They thought that Russian supplies were good enough.
In fact, there’s talk that Russia encouraged the global warming hysteria, ‘cuz that meant more Russian natural gas would be sold to feckless Europeans. And, when Fukushima happened in 2011, the ‘no nukes’ crowd forced the closure of nuclear plants in Germany and elsewhere. Even more good times for Putin.
Unhinged By COVID?
However, COVID-19 wasn’t a fun time for Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. In fact, it was terrifying.
Did you notice those looooong tables at which Putin would meet Macron and other presidents?
The security council meetings with him on one side of large rooms and everyone else on the other?
Rumors have floated around that Putin had isolated himself in some bunker and made everyone go through two weeks of isolation before seeing him. It’s hard to know how true that is, but it could explain a little of what’s happening – if he sat alone, in isolation, with too much time to think.
Did Putin cook up the invasion of Ukraine because he and his oligarchs had too much time on their hands and too little to do?
Why Russia Invaded Ukraine
I don’t know. But, there is one thing that we do know, and it’s something that we should not forget:
Russia is a petrochemical state.
Forty-three percent of all exports from Russia are hydrocarbons. And Putin, along with his pet oligarchs, control all of it. They get a big slice of more than $200 billion a year, and the threat of any decline would have motivated them to serious thought.
In that video, you will learn a few things:
Ukraine has the second largest natural gas reserves in Europe.
Ukraine has the sixth largest coal reserves on planet Earth.
That’s a lot, and Russia clearly wants it. By the way, the above video was the result of this article:
What if Putin didn’t miscalculate?
Canadian energy expert David Knight Legg was quoted as saying:
“Under the guise of an invasion, Putin is executing an enormous heist”
Putin wanted more than just Ukraine’s coal, oil and natural gas. And, he did miscalculate when he thought that the Ukrainians would give up without much of a fight. To him, Ukraine was the easiest of the easy targets. He didn’t realize that his intended victims had other ideas and even better training.
Just remember that the era of violence was always going to have psychopaths leading the way.
Why Ukraine Hasn’t Lost… Yet.
Retired General Mark Hertling (Commanding Gen. US Army Europe) had this to say, on the day when Russia invaded Ukraine:
After one of my @CNN appearances, one of the anchors asked me off-air why I had confidence in Ukraine’s army to push back agains the illegal Russian military onslaught.
I used a bit of “battlefield math” to explain my rationale. 1/16
— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) February 25, 2022
That thread shows what some knew, but the rest of us didn’t. Ukrainian soldiers were going to chew this Russian invasion apart. And Putin did not understand what was in store for his army, when he chose to do what he did.
Part of the reason why Russia is losing, is due to their battle plan. It was essentially a rehash of the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968. Kamil Galeev says this:
Both in 1968 and in 2022 soldiers didn’t know where they’re going. Even their commanders didn’t know. Immediately before the invasion commanders received a radio command “Vltava-666” which meant they should unpack a sealed mail with a secret order and execute it immediately
The entire Soviet invasion plan of Czechoslovakia fits exactly with what the Russians attempted in February, and you can see the rest of Kamil’s Twitter thread on this subject, here:
Why Russia is losing this war?
First I’ll discuss why Russia *is* losing. Then I’ll give my version of how it could happen. The key to understanding lies in the Soviet/Russian military doctrine. It gives context for current events and helps to predict further Russian actions🧵 pic.twitter.com/uQqYVLENwe
— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) April 6, 2022
Unfortunately, Russia might have learned something from their failures in Ukraine. Instead of three different commands operating independent of each other, they have unified their strategy under a single man:
He’s already flattened Syrian cities, and he’s now ready to do the same in Ukraine. I don’t know how good he is, or even if he can rescue some kind of victory from the jaws of defeat. Here is where I saw the news of his appointment:
The BBC reports that the Southern Military District will now be in charge of the operation in Ukraine. This makes sense for a few reasons: 1) its commander, Army General Alexander Dvornikov, outranks the other district commanders who are Colonel-Generals.https://t.co/3AWIkgkQJT pic.twitter.com/UMv1dHgSWL
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 8, 2022
That might mark a change in how this war progresses. What it doesn’t change is how badly damaged Russia already is. With 75% of their combat ready troops committed to this invasion, they don’t have a lot of strategic depth for any kind of meaningful change in strategy.
However, if this ‘new’ commander can slow the bleeding, the war might be prolonged. Given enough time, Russia will throw more conscripts into the meat grinder. There can be no doubt about his willingness to do this. And the Russian military has a proven capacity for taking casualties, as long as they win.
A Russian Thirst For Successful Violence
Tolstoy spoke about this, more than a hundred years ago, just as Russia chose to invade Japanese held Manchuria in the ill-fated Russo-Japanese war:
Same Russia, Different War
Here’s the article that Tolstory wrote in 1904:
“Bethink Yourselves!” by graf Leo Tolstoy
He could have written the same thing today. Instead of the Russian Tsar/Czar waging a ‘Short Victorious War’ against Japan, it could have been Putin and his ‘Special Military Operation’ against Ukraine. However, Russia’s unprovoked aggression against the Japanese over a century ago, ended in disaster and the eventual collapse of Moscow.
Will Putin’s government also collapse?
In Russia, failure on the battlefield always results in the fall of the government.
This thirst for successful violence on the part of the Russian people is reflected in something that Chris in Poland shared with us a couple weeks ago. He reads and understands Russian and has been tracking what has been happening in Russia. This song has become wildly popular, right now:
Read the subtitles. That should tell you everything that you need to know about how the Russians feel about invading someone else – for the glory of Russia. This is a very bad sign of things to come, if they have any kind of victory in Ukraine.
Worse, they will not stop at Ukraine, as this next video indicates:
In that video, they openly call for the invasion of Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. And, their readiness to launch a nuclear attack is astonishing. Very little provocation is necessary in their eyes. And, the brutality of what those countries will face – and Ukraine already faces – should grab your attention.
Does anyone remember the ‘cleansing operations’ conducted by the Russians in Chechnya, in the late ’90s and early ’00s?
Not many of you do. I was in Israel, when they destroyed Grozny and massacred the Chechens. But, all of that came back to me as I was reading this:
Bodies of mutilated children among horrors the Russians left behind
We got reports of this from the first days of the invasion, but didn’t believe it. Here’s this from two days after Russia started their war of conquest:
A Ukrainian friend living in Kyiv has just messaged me via Instagram to tell me that Russian soldiers in Bucha on the outskirts of the city are now entering civilian homes and shooting anyone they find inside. Thousands of innocent people are trapped in the city with no way out.
— Nicholas Drummond (@nicholadrummond) February 27, 2022
Notice the date. We didn’t believe it. It was too awful. But now, we find it to be true. And like those ‘cleansing operations’ in Chechnya, if Russia doesn’t win this time, they’ll be back. They didn’t win the first Chechen war, but they won the second.
And, the average Russian is being primed for the genocide of Ukraine:
Russia’s Ukraine Propaganda Has Turned Fully Genocidal
Russia’s genocide handbook
By Russian definition, if you believe that Ukraine should be a free and independent country, unfettered by Russian control, you are a Nazi. To Putin, this means that I’m a Nazi – that we are all Nazis.
And, for those of you who insist that Ukraine is a racist, Nazi country, take a load of this tweet:
As a Russian-speaking person of color who was born and raised in Ukraine, I believe that I am in a position to speak on the issue of nationalism and neo-Nazism in Ukraine. A long thread 👇
— Mariam Naiem (@mariamposts) April 7, 2022
That thread illustrates her life as the child of an immigrant family from Afghanistan, living in Ukraine. She should have suffered a tremendous amount of racism, if the rumors of Ukrainian Nazism were true. She didn’t. The rumors aren’t.
Ukraine is no more Nazi than the United States, New Zealand, Australia or the UK. Every society has Nazis, and I’ve had to chase off more than a few from the comment section of this website. They are one of the many reasons why I am forced to moderate all comments. And, I hate having to do that.
The Ride Of The Red Horse
All of this – and more – is part of why I believe that this marks the beginning of the ride of the Red Horse of Revelation 6. I talk about it in my book, When Gog Comes. I’ve been talking about it for years. And now, it seems like it’s here.
We will all get intimately familiar with this quote in the coming months and years:
“There are only nine meals between mankind and anarchy.”
– Alfred Henry Lewis (1906)
It will strike first in Third World countries that must import grain to survive. And then, the violence and mayhem will spread. We are already seeing it in Peru, Iraq and Sri Lanka. We’ll see it soon in Egypt, Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and even China.
In fact, we’re already seeing it in Shanghai for different reasons:
So…my cautious thoughts Shanghai/COVID-Zero-in-China. Yes, I am self-censoring on this one, so this is one of those threads where those of you who need explicit statements and can’t read implied meaning and nuance are going to have a tough time.
— Naomi Wu 机械妖姬 (@RealSexyCyborg) April 9, 2022
Food is at the core of the social contract that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) made with the Chinese people. Future prosperity is the other leg of that contract. Take either of those away, and the CCP falls. And, there will be blood in the streets.
This is no joke. The Chinese have an emotional, blood-soaked history that is full of violence. Even placid Taiwan is not immune to the threat of such social upheaval.
When will the Red Horse ride through your neighborhood?
Europe and America have already suffered riots in their inner cities. It’s only a matter of time before food shortage drives more rioters into the streets, burning down their neighborhoods before coming after yours.
Remember that the psychopath will lead the way in this era of violence.
When Gog Comes
All of this is a part of the lead-up to the coming of Gog and Magog. I have completed the initial recording of the audio version of When Gog Comes, and hope to have the final version up in the coming days.
Writing that book, and then recording it, was one of the most painful experiences that I have ever endured. And, I devoutly wish that what I wrote and recorded was wrong. It’s straight out of my worst nightmares, but it’s also straight out of prophecy.
God said that it would happen, so we need to be ready for…
I truly hope that you’ll be ready for this
A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished. – Proverbs 22:3
If you find a flaw in my reasoning, have a question, or wish to add your own viewpoint, leave a comment on the website. Your input is truly welcome.
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