The drums of war were louder this week – in ways that sounded a lot like those ‘weapons of mass destruction’ claims that led to the invasion of Iraq in 2003. And, this drive towards conflict almost drowned out a more subtle and deadly voice:
Because our governments are run by the worst possible leaders (see The Peter Principle), we will get the worst possible outcome. And, I had been hoping for a less cartoonish response from those sending us to war.
I was also hoping for more time before this future became so obvious.
Subscribe to The Shock Letter and receive my articles in your inbox:
(Click HERE to make sure that it gets to your inbox.)
And, read my two books:
NOTE: Important links and commentary are posted daily in the Omega Shock Twitter page (usually before 7 am, EST. Mon-Sat.)
The Drums of War and Famine
When I saw Ned Price, the spokesman for the US State Department, say this, I knew that they were doing their best to push us into a war with Russia:
It’s almost as if the US State Department had lost its mind. They were making absolutely ridiculous claims without a shred of evidence and asking us to believe them – on their word alone. And, it reminded me of the Weapons of Mass Destruction claim made by Secretary of State Colin Powell, in front of the United Nations.
Powell’s ridiculous claims led to a disastrous invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the handover of power in the Middle East to Iran. Hundreds of thousands died, and millions of lives were ruined beyond repair. A trillion dollars were wasted. Lives were shattered. And all of it for an unknown foreign policy goal.
The result is a resurgent Shia Crescent that sweeps from Iran, through Iraq, into Syria and Lebanon. It’s almost as if the United States wanted to hand the Middle East over to the Ayatollahs in Tehran. And, before you jump in and tell me that this was all planned, let me remind you that I used to work for government.
Evil And Stupidity
I can tell you with complete confidence that the US government is run by morons.
I get why you would think otherwise, but I’ve spent way too much time around some of these people. They literally do not understand how incompetent they are. And, when you point it out, they give you the same blank look that Ned Price gave Matt Lee in the above video.
This is part of the reason why I despair over the future. You can negotiate with those who are truly diabolical, but not with morons. I’ve watched very smart people try to reason with moronic leadership and utterly fail. My most memorable experience was in a meeting with a government official, people told me that the shocked look on my face was delightful.
(Please, never demand software changes during a code freeze.)
The problem is that it’s often hard to tell the difference between pure evil and horrifying stupidity. And, when you look at society, the number of truly stupid people is many times greater than the number of psychopaths.
War With Russia
Having said that, there is some serious evil that is pushing America and Europe into a war with Russia. And, very little of it makes much sense. Yes, I understand that Russia has resources and that she seems to be at the center of a realignment of western Asia. But, that’s not enough.
A war with Russia would wreck what is left of the US and Europe. The economic collapse that would follow such an insane act, would forever destroy America’s hegemony and Europe’s independence. The EU would break apart, and maybe even the United States. In fact, the US might break apart even without a war with Russia.
Oil And Fertilizer
The problem is oil and fertilizer.
Most of you don’t know this, but oil companies in the US are having trouble finding good locations to dig their wells. You can see this by talking to people involved, or just by looking at a DUC chart:
From: Shooting Oil in a Barrel
Yes, there are still a lot of Drilled but UnCompleted (DUC) wells in the US. But, the fact that they are declining in number so quickly should give us all pause. And, it reminds me of a phrase that we are all going to get really familiar with, really soon:
Spare Capacity is that amount of additional output that you are able to add to what you are currently producing. And, unless you have absolutely solid proof otherwise, you should always assume that a producer is lying about how much spare capacity they have.
Oil companies are famous for their ability to lie about their oil reserves. They’ll tell you about how much oil they have under the ground, without telling you how much it will cost to get it. And, US bond investors have gotten tired of all promises and no profits. All of that and more is why DUCs are declining.
But wait, I said fertilizer.
What does that have to do with DUC wells?
Oil and natural gas are usually found near each other. Big oil producers are often big natural gas producers and vice versa. And, there is one thing that I’ve been yelling about for a while, and few talk about:
Without natural gas…
…you can’t make fertilizer.
…five billion people starve.
Right now, the single largest producer of nitrogen fertilizer in the world is Russia. They have 62% of world production. And, just as planting season is about to begin in Asia, Europe and North America…
…Russia banned all exports of Ammonium Nitrate.
Even before this two month ban, the cost of fertilizer and pesticide were four times greater than before. And now, with this ban, expect them to go even higher.
In fact, take a good hard look at nitrogen fertilizer prices before all this happened:
— Sam (@Samir_Madani) February 1, 2022
(You’ll need to expand the graph to see the incredible rise in prices.)
That’s right. The price of Urea is four times higher than it was about this time last year. This means that farmers will be forced to reduce crop size and/or switch to crops that require less fertilizer. Soybeans require only a quarter of the fertilizer that corn does, and many farmers are trying to switch to soy – but, good luck getting enough seed to plant.
For more on that, go here:
A Farming Insider Has Warned Me That The Coming Food Shortages Are Going To Be FAR WORSE Than We Are Being Told
But, back to Russia…
So, why did Russia ban the export of nitrogen fertilizer?
Everything points to the Russian government wanting to make sure that they have a good harvest this year. Everyone needs to eat, and Moscow wants to make sure that their people can. But, that also makes me wonder.
Does Russia have as much spare capacity as they would like us to think?
Either they have been struggling to produce enough natural gas, or they are having trouble producing enough fertilizer. And, it could be both. However, there is also the possibility that Russian fertilizer manufacturers have been cashing in on the high price of fertilizer by selling it internationally, and not to local farmers.
Does the US State Department want a war with Russia because they have fertilizer for brains?
An Even Bigger Natural Gas Debacle
But hey, the natural gas story gets worse:
Dwindling French Gas Stockpiles Stoke Fears Of Winter Blackouts
And, it’s not just France that has a problem. The UK and Germany are also facing an inability to heat homes in addition to electricity problems. Oh, I just remembered one of our favorite countries in all the world: TURKEY.
Turkey is having trouble paying for the natural gas that they are getting from Iran. And yes, Turkey is getting natural gas from Iran, and Iran has been shutting it off.
‘cuz Turkey is running out of foreign currency to pay the Iranians for the natural gas that they need. And, when the gas gets shut off, there goes their electricity.
Think about that realignment of western Asia. Iran, Turkey and Russia are going to be great friends, real soon.
Oh, and I just saw this:
Met Coal Prices: pic.twitter.com/CQ2XbTMItf
— The Coal Trader (@dyer440) February 4, 2022
This is bad. So, not only are coal and natural gas prices going through the roof, but so is metallurgical coal. This is a very bad sign for the future of thermal coal – the stuff used in power plants.
Then, just to add some extra pizazz to this feast of consequences, we saw this yesterday:
Russia To Supply More Gas To China Via New Pipeline
So, while Europe strangles due to a lack of natural gas and fertilizer, China gets all that gas that Europe refused to buy. Oh, and yes, it was Europe – namely Germany – that refused Russian gas.
Aren’t governments so VERY intelligent?
I truly hope that you’ll be ready for this
A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished. – Proverbs 22:3
If you find a flaw in my reasoning, have a question, or wish to add your own viewpoint, leave a comment on the website. Your input is truly welcome.
Click the following link and SHOCK your inbox with The Shock Letter:
(Click HERE to make sure that it gets to your inbox.)
Read my books: