The Drums of War and Famine

The drums of war were louder this week – in ways that sounded a lot like those ‘weapons of mass destruction’ claims that led to the invasion of Iraq in 2003. And, this drive towards conflict almost drowned out a more subtle and deadly voice:

Famine

Because our governments are run by the worst possible leaders (see The Peter Principle), we will get the worst possible outcome. And, I had been hoping for a less cartoonish response from those sending us to war.

I was also hoping for more time before this future became so obvious.

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The Drums of War and Famine

When I saw Ned Price, the spokesman for the US State Department, say this, I knew that they were doing their best to push us into a war with Russia:

Heated Exchange Between State Dept. & Media
on Evidence Russia Fabricating Attacks by Ukraine

It’s almost as if the US State Department had lost its mind. They were making absolutely ridiculous claims without a shred of evidence and asking us to believe them – on their word alone. And, it reminded me of the Weapons of Mass Destruction claim made by Secretary of State Colin Powell, in front of the United Nations.

Powell’s ridiculous claims led to a disastrous invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the handover of power in the Middle East to Iran. Hundreds of thousands died, and millions of lives were ruined beyond repair. A trillion dollars were wasted. Lives were shattered. And all of it for an unknown foreign policy goal.

The result is a resurgent Shia Crescent that sweeps from Iran, through Iraq, into Syria and Lebanon. It’s almost as if the United States wanted to hand the Middle East over to the Ayatollahs in Tehran. And, before you jump in and tell me that this was all planned, let me remind you that I used to work for government.

Evil And Stupidity

I can tell you with complete confidence that the US government is run by morons.

I get why you would think otherwise, but I’ve spent way too much time around some of these people. They literally do not understand how incompetent they are. And, when you point it out, they give you the same blank look that Ned Price gave Matt Lee in the above video.

This is part of the reason why I despair over the future. You can negotiate with those who are truly diabolical, but not with morons. I’ve watched very smart people try to reason with moronic leadership and utterly fail. My most memorable experience was in a meeting with a government official, people told me that the shocked look on my face was delightful.

(Please, never demand software changes during a code freeze.)

The problem is that it’s often hard to tell the difference between pure evil and horrifying stupidity. And, when you look at society, the number of truly stupid people is many times greater than the number of psychopaths.

War With Russia

Having said that, there is some serious evil that is pushing America and Europe into a war with Russia. And, very little of it makes much sense. Yes, I understand that Russia has resources and that she seems to be at the center of a realignment of western Asia. But, that’s not enough.

A war with Russia would wreck what is left of the US and Europe. The economic collapse that would follow such an insane act, would forever destroy America’s hegemony and Europe’s independence. The EU would break apart, and maybe even the United States. In fact, the US might break apart even without a war with Russia.

Oil And Fertilizer

The problem is oil and fertilizer.

Most of you don’t know this, but oil companies in the US are having trouble finding good locations to dig their wells. You can see this by talking to people involved, or just by looking at a DUC chart:

From: Shooting Oil in a Barrel

Yes, there are still a lot of Drilled but UnCompleted (DUC) wells in the US. But, the fact that they are declining in number so quickly should give us all pause. And, it reminds me of a phrase that we are all going to get really familiar with, really soon:

Spare Capacity

Spare Capacity is that amount of additional output that you are able to add to what you are currently producing. And, unless you have absolutely solid proof otherwise, you should always assume that a producer is lying about how much spare capacity they have.

Oil companies are famous for their ability to lie about their oil reserves. They’ll tell you about how much oil they have under the ground, without telling you how much it will cost to get it. And, US bond investors have gotten tired of all promises and no profits. All of that and more is why DUCs are declining.

quack!

Famine

But wait, I said fertilizer.

What does that have to do with DUC wells?

Oil and natural gas are usually found near each other. Big oil producers are often big natural gas producers and vice versa. And, there is one thing that I’ve been yelling about for a while, and few talk about:

Without natural gas…

…you can’t make fertilizer.

Without fertilizer…

…five billion people starve.

Right now, the single largest producer of nitrogen fertilizer in the world is Russia. They have 62% of world production. And, just as planting season is about to begin in Asia, Europe and North America…

…Russia banned all exports of Ammonium Nitrate.

(Thanks, Chris!)

Even before this two month ban, the cost of fertilizer and pesticide were four times greater than before. And now, with this ban, expect them to go even higher.

In fact, take a good hard look at nitrogen fertilizer prices before all this happened:

(You’ll need to expand the graph to see the incredible rise in prices.)

That’s right. The price of Urea is four times higher than it was about this time last year. This means that farmers will be forced to reduce crop size and/or switch to crops that require less fertilizer. Soybeans require only a quarter of the fertilizer that corn does, and many farmers are trying to switch to soy – but, good luck getting enough seed to plant.

For more on that, go here:

A Farming Insider Has Warned Me That The Coming Food Shortages Are Going To Be FAR WORSE Than We Are Being Told
http://themostimportantnews.com/archives/a-farming-insider-has-warned-me-that-the-coming-food-shortages-are-going-to-be-far-worse-than-we-are-being-told

But, back to Russia…

So, why did Russia ban the export of nitrogen fertilizer?

Everything points to the Russian government wanting to make sure that they have a good harvest this year. Everyone needs to eat, and Moscow wants to make sure that their people can. But, that also makes me wonder.

Does Russia have as much spare capacity as they would like us to think?

Either they have been struggling to produce enough natural gas, or they are having trouble producing enough fertilizer. And, it could be both. However, there is also the possibility that Russian fertilizer manufacturers have been cashing in on the high price of fertilizer by selling it internationally, and not to local farmers.

Does the US State Department want a war with Russia because they have fertilizer for brains?

An Even Bigger Natural Gas Debacle

But hey, the natural gas story gets worse:

Dwindling French Gas Stockpiles Stoke Fears Of Winter Blackouts
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/dwindling-french-gas-stockpiles-stoke-fears-winter-blackouts

And, it’s not just France that has a problem. The UK and Germany are also facing an inability to heat homes in addition to electricity problems. Oh, I just remembered one of our favorite countries in all the world: TURKEY.

Turkey

Turkey is having trouble paying for the natural gas that they are getting from Iran. And yes, Turkey is getting natural gas from Iran, and Iran has been shutting it off.

Why?

‘cuz Turkey is running out of foreign currency to pay the Iranians for the natural gas that they need. And, when the gas gets shut off, there goes their electricity.

TURKEY – CITIZENSHIP Offered to Foreign Nationals
for FOREIGN CURRENCY. Reserves Now Dangerously Low

Think about that realignment of western Asia. Iran, Turkey and Russia are going to be great friends, real soon.

Coal

Oh, and I just saw this:

This is bad. So, not only are coal and natural gas prices going through the roof, but so is metallurgical coal. This is a very bad sign for the future of thermal coal – the stuff used in power plants.

Annnnnd… CHINA

Then, just to add some extra pizazz to this feast of consequences, we saw this yesterday:

Russia To Supply More Gas To China Via New Pipeline
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-To-Supply-More-Gas-To-China-Via-New-Pipeline.html

So, while Europe strangles due to a lack of natural gas and fertilizer, China gets all that gas that Europe refused to buy. Oh, and yes, it was Europe – namely Germany – that refused Russian gas.

Aren’t governments so VERY intelligent?

 

I truly hope that you’ll be ready for this

A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished.Proverbs 22:3

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If you find a flaw in my reasoning, have a question, or wish to add your own viewpoint, leave a comment on the website. Your input is truly welcome.

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12 thoughts on “The Drums of War and Famine”

  1. Hi John,
    speaking of fertilizers (as I’m a part-time farmer:) let me invoke top global producers of potassium hydroxide, which is also interesting:
    Canada 28.57%
    Russia 17.14%
    Belarus 15.24%
    China 14.76%
    (top consumers being USA, India, China and Brazil)

    I took closer look, part of that Russian article translates to the following:
    “In the second half of December of this year, the Ministry of Industry and Trade received a number of requests from enterprises of the mining complex in connection with concerns about their provision with ammonium nitrate … according to the appeals, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, together with the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Energy, is working to balance the calendar consumption plan in order to smooth out the peaks”

    Ammonium nitrate also translates to explosives. I do not see signs (not sure?) that Russian mining sector goes overdrive, so… When I was a teenager there was a joke in my country: two Russians meet in a bar…
    -Where do you work?
    -In a tractor factory.
    -Interesting, is it complicated?
    -Not really, we have some challenges with night vision, targeting computers and reactive armor, but all in all it goes well.

    Whoa, Colin Powell, you are right, did you see this video?:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7soN6HNU3Y
    The problem is that they seem to get mentally hibernated in early 90′ and they have no awareness that pulling similar tricks in 2022 is gravely dangerous. To them, but also, unfortunately, to all of us…
    Yous in Christ
    Chris

    • Potassium? Ouch. And, I think that I heard somewhere that China has banned the export of the phosphorus component of fertilizer. I would love to believe that this is a global supply chain issue. A great perspective, Chris. Thank you. – JL

  2. Mind numbing madness!!! Where would a logical person start. Totally illogical??? Why YES! Corn belt farmers are getting notice to cut production 20% (for new carbon sucking machine) NATO countries piling on against Russia when Russia can shut off the heat?? Farmers will want to plant all that CRP land that’s been sitting for decades if yields are to diminish from less fertilizer. China and Viet Nam took a huge hit in pork production recently, while floods diminished American calves, PERS and Turkeys took huge hit a couple years back. 160 countries signed up for population control in 94. I get that our evil overlords ain’t too smart, but our tax dollars been supporting evil a long time, and someone will just keep asking some supercomputer for worst case scenarios for the idiots to try to bring it all together at once. Here we are. Fertilizer. Fuel, War, and which countries militaries are not being force vaccinated and we can who is chosen Winner. Vaccine horrors are showing up and who is doubling down on forced coercion. Wars are costly venues. Genocide is still the bigger picture.

    • Definitely mind-numbing. Just remember that our dear leaders still need peasants – at least some. I’m still hoping that this all blows over and that we find the fertilizer and fuel from… somewhere. There’s certainly a lot of something like ‘fertilizer’ being produced in Washington. Thanks, MM! – JL

  3. Good morning and blessings upon you brother.

    Ahhh it’s always so good to wake to your analysis and thoughts on a beautifully… um wet…. Sunday morning.

    What an interesting week it was, but that interaction between the State Department official and the AP reporter Matt Lee… Priceless…. Ahem. Forgive me, I couldn’t help myself.

    Interesting though, that this week the official US narrative got questioned twice. Over supposed Russian crisis actors (you couldn’t make that up if you tried), and over the supposed killing of an ISIS terrorist leader who ‘blew himself and his family up before US forces could land’. Both times reporters said ‘got any evidence to support that?’ and got the push back ‘don’t you trust us?’. That is highly unusual for the Western propaganda ministry – aka the legacy media. But then so was Jen Psaki and her comment ‘I believe I only used the word “imminent” once, and others did too” in her defence over Russia invasion claims. Yet the legacy media screamed repeatedly headlines of Govt sources claiming Russian invasion any day now… delayed by weather… delayed by Olympics…. delayed because Putin hasn’t decided… delayed… delayed….

    Honestly their beginning to sound like blimmin Daleks. “SEEK! LOCATE! DELAY THE DATE!”

    But what really raised my eyebrows was the US seeking assistance from China over the Ukraine. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uss-blinken-holds-talks-with-chinas-wang-ukraine-situation-2022-01-27/

    Surprise! China backs Russia at feisty UN security council meeting…
    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3165502/no-reason-ukraine-war-fears-china-tells-un-meeting?fbclid=IwAR26m0XKVnP5gF8cgMWX1T4zWndVerTtqbSA7WeHtloDNBDKq4c-Tu6P890

    To which the US responded don’t mess with any sanctions over Ukraine…
    https://www.rt.com/russia/548266-us-warns-china-russia/

    Only to see Russia and China move closer together – no surprise there.
    https://www.rt.com/russia/548333-putin-meeting-xi-beijing/
    ‘Russia-China relationship now ‘unprecedented’ – Putin’ and sign the energy deal you noted to supply China with natural gas.

    However, did you notice something about that deal…. it’s settled in Euro’s, not US dollars.
    Another blow to the US petrodollar. I can’t help but wonder if the spike in the US 10 year yield was somehow related.

    Now if you were Europe, and the US was trying desperately to provoke a war in the Ukraine… with a nation that has close ties to your biggest trading partner, using your currency as a medium of exchange (there by increasing its value in global terms)… are you going to choose war? or trade? We’ve already seen the Western alliance fracture over the Ukraine, I can’t help but wonder if this is perhaps sounding the death peel over American influence in Europe. Especially as you again note, with energy and food security so fragile.

    But that gives me pause for thought…
    Russia seems to be holding all the advantage here, yet they sign a major gas supply deal with China. If their reserves are really running out…. why sign a new deal with China which if they fail to meet will antagonise their Southern neighbours. But if they fail to supply Western Europe they destabilise that region and increase the risks of conflict there.

    Does Russia have more gas than they are letting on?
    World War 1 and 2 were about energy reserves and security between great powers.
    What if Russia is playing a more subtle game. Pretend how weak they are, make it appear that they are a paper tiger and their resources are running out, then wait for the US to collapse before revealing just how much energy they really have? If your right about them reserving their fertilizer for domestic production, they could come riding to Europe’s rescue with both energy and food, securing their influence over Europe for decades.

    I have never forgotten a report I read by Russian scientists decades ago about their discovery that oil and natural gas are not ‘fossil’ fuels, but are a consequence of the interaction between layers of the earths core and effectively the earth is swimming on oceans of oil and gas, but too deep to economically drill for. There is some evidence to indicate this is true, dry wells refilling over years. Does make me wonder, just what do the Russians know…

    I could go on… so much food for thought.
    Ultimately man does not control his destiny, that is in the Lords hands.
    We have the advantage of watching this knowing how it ends.
    Blessed be the Lord God our Father, His Son Jesus Christ and the Holy Spirit.
    May His blessings be upon you and your family brother.

    • Notice also that the mainstream media hasn’t really given us the reason why Putin would invade Ukraine. The only reasons they give are fuzzy ones like, ‘NATO expansion’ or mumble-mumble Crimea. Russia is in the driver’s seat on all of this. And, they know how to drive. Excellent comment, Peter. – JL

  4. -“And, when you look at society, the number of truly stupid people is many times greater than the number of psychopaths”. JL

    I think about this daily and am not sure which is more terrifying, the masses of willfully stupid people or the pyschopaths?

    And if anyone wants a good understanding of why, other than the Bible, check out John Taylor Gatto’s book, “The Underground History of American Education”. Or any of his other books. God rest his soul!

    I pray for your safety in Taiwan John. Please pray for me if you would.

    Being in Babylon for so long has worn down my soul. I am so very tired. 20 years of warning, and know one wants to listen. No one seems to care. You’re branded being too negative, even by your own family. And especially the Church.

    May God bless you, the Canadians and all the other truth-tellers in this age we find ourselves in!

    Sincerely,

    Dan B.

    • Thank you, Dan. You are not alone. However, I have noticed a ‘sea change’. Hopefully, I’m not imagining it, but a fall in food production, a rise in unrest and problems keeping the lights on, might nudge sleepy Christians into waking up. Keep up the good work, brother. God has a plan. – JL

  5. Don’t forget the possibility that Russia is cutting off exports of fertilizer for the same reason they might cut off natural gas: why should they cater to these idiots who keep threatening them with sanctions while still significantly dependent on them? It would put an end to this moronic bluster when they are both freezing and starving, and Russia well able to support itself. It reminds me of when Obama shut down the space shuttle program while still needing to get to the international space station, had to depend on Russia’s shuttle to do so, and kept insulting Russia all the while. Some Russian spokesperson, I forget who, remarked that when we needed to get to the space station we should use a trampoline. I loved that, never forgot it.

    • Yes, that trampoline. That was a great line. I just looked it up. It was Dmitry Rogozin in 2014. Russia has always been a country of harsh realities and have rarely hesitated in making hard choices. And, there are lots of other, more friendly nations – like China – who would like all that wonderful fertilizer. Great point, DRG. – JL

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