The System is Dying II – When Growth Stops

In both the natural and geopolitical world, there seems to be one law that that is universal – at least on this planet. And that law is:

Systems grow until they die.

Look at ANY biological system at the macro level. That system grows and grows and grows, until it runs out of food, and then rapidly dies – to be replaced by a different biological system that does the same thing. And, scientists have wondered at this seemingly mindless, unchanging rule of nature.

Of course, it has its roots in the Fall of Man and the Garden of Eden, but you can’t expect scientists to read the Bible.


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The System is Dying II – When Growth Stops

I spent my formative years, expecting to earn my Ph.D. in a field of science. And, my initial exposure to Physics captured my attention pretty quickly. God has designed and constructed a magnificent Universe, and I was completely fascinated by His handiwork.

What a marvelous creation.

Unfortunately, something went wrong as I was laying the mathematical foundation that I needed to succeed in Physics, so I crashed and burned on the shoals of Advanced Calculus. Calculus isn’t difficult. It’s not even hard. But, when faced with differential equations, my mind rebelled.

Then, I found myself studying geopolitics, with a concentration on the Middle East, and a different kind of fascination gripped me. What an absolutely incredible mess. But, the sense of order that I learned in my pursuit of Physics, encouraged me to look for the reasons why the Middle East was such a violent and dangerous place. And, the Middle East isn’t the only ‘violent and dangerous’ place.

In fact, the whole world is violent and dangerous, and it is that way because of this one rule that never seems to change:

Systems grow until they die.

Scientists like to talk about ‘equilibrium’, and it’s that condition where two opposing forces are equal and cancel each other out. But, that rarely seems to happen, except on a small scale for a short period of time.

The Natural World

Look at any biological system.

Do any of them stay static?

Of course not. Every single living creature exists as a part of a larger biological system and is, itself, a biological system. And, every biological system grows until it dies. The only time when it does not do this, is when it is balanced out by an opposing biological system.

Deer are adorable. Everyone knows about Bambi, and everyone loves Bambi. But, given half a chance, deer will breed and breed and breed and consume and consume and consume until there’s nothing left to eat and too many deer. Just ask any farmer or hunter.

If you loved deer, you need to shoot some of them, every year, or they will die of starvation. I know that this will be shocking to some of you, but this is absolutely the case. And, that’s why God designed wolves to keep the deer population in check. Hence, that interesting word, ‘equilibrium’.

Of course, none of that would have been necessary, if Eve had not been tricked by the serpent, and if Adam hadn’t chosen to disobey God. The Fall of Man required God to introduce the system of prey and predator – along with the pain and suffering that goes along with it.

The Nature Of Humanity

Why am I talking about this in a newsletter dedicated to geopolitics and prophecy?

Well, political systems act in much the same way, except – in this case – humanity is the wolf. And, the only thing that keeps the wolves in check, are other wolves.

What do these two-legged wolves feed on?


We love that ‘catchall’ word. Stuff. You stick it in there because it represents too many different things to talk about in a paragraph or sentence. Stuff.

What stuff are we talking about?

Well, as Noah’s children spread themselves out into the world, they learned to farm and raise cattle. And, since they were fruitful and multiplied, they quickly ran out of room to do farming and cattle raising. And, the result was always war.

Sometimes, one group of humans found themselves with such incredible farmland and awesome weather, that they grew quickly. And, growing quickly always means that you have lots of sons. The firstborn always inherited the family farm, and the other sons…

…well, they had to either find other farmland, or… well …um… do, err… something else.

Usually, that ‘something else’ was join the local king’s army and take someone else’s farmland – killing the original occupants of that farmland. Of course, there are other reasons why some of that farmland might not have owners, like disease or drought that might have killed off the original owners. But generally, the biggest threat to a farmer was another farmer.

Why do you think that, until the late 1800s, world population hovered around one billion people?

Up to that point, any and all ‘progress’ by mankind was marginal. There weren’t very many scientists. There weren’t very many teachers or professors. There was barely enough extra food to feed the population and allow a few rich people to play at being a ‘scientist’.

Coal And Oil

What changed?

Coal and then oil.

Take a look at this rather interesting graph that I discovered almost four years ago:

Population Growth and Oil Production

Please understand that there isn’t a single geophysicist, oil expert or petroleum company that doesn’t predict that Peak Oil is coming. In fact, if you dig around and look hard enough, you will find their predictions on when Peak Oil will arrive. And, you need to understand that.

Peak Oil

To put it another way:

Among experts, there is no debate over the existence of Peak Oil.

There is only debate over WHEN it occurs.

Do you understand the difference?

You need to understand that difference because a lack of understanding will cause you to ignore the need to prepare for the inevitable. You also need to understand the fact that you are not being told the truth. And, there’s a principle that points to the reason why you are not being told the truth:

Never believe someone whose existence is based upon your belief in them.

And the corollary is…

Anyone whose existence is based upon the need to believe that a certain thing is true, will always believe that this certain thing is true.

So, when I say that you are not being told the truth, part of the reason is that those who should be telling you the truth are telling THEMSELVES lies. That’s right. Self-deception is rife in the oil industry. In any industry. But, the ‘self-deception’ is only a part of the deception.

Stock Price And Lying Liars

Please understand that if the financial markets found out that the oil industry had a limited life-span, their stock price would collapse. And, stock price often has a lot to do with the Price-to-Earnings Ratio. As an ex-finance guy, I can tell you what the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) actually means:

It’s the number of years that you need to hold a single share, to ‘break even’ on your investment.

Most finance people would object to me simplifying the P/E ratio like that. But, it’s still the truth. And, you need to remember that finance people lie to themselves, just like oil people do.

What is the P/E ratio for the oil company, Exxon Mobile?


This means, that if you buy a share of stock in Exxon, you either expect to get your money back in less than 19 years, or you expect Exxon profits to rise more quickly than most people think – which would mean that you ‘break even’ sooner. Yes, I know that I’m glossing over a bunch of other issues. But, that’s essentially it.

What would the P/E ratio be, if everyone knew that Exxon had only five years of life left?

Well, it would be a fraction of it’s current P/E – certainly less than five. And, that would mean a GIGANTIC collapse in the price of Exxon. And, the management of Exxon is paid based on their share price.

Do you get it now?

The oil companies are never EVER going to admit Peak Oil to you, until after it has happened.

Well, I’m here to tell you that it has already happened. As proof, look at this oil production graph:

( Oil Production Outside The US )

Why is it important to look at non-US oil production?

Because the US has been fueling the fracking boom with lots and lots of debt. It’s artificial, which is why you don’t see the problem. Everything seems fine. But, you’ll notice something very interesting in that chart.

Oil production goes flat, when you hit 2005.

Remember my point about growing until you die?

That’s right. Oil production has stopped growing. And, the one thing that keeps the world economy going is cheap transportation. Without it, the global economy dies. Then the financial system dies. After that, people die.

How Many Will Die

I don’t care who you are, but if you understand the world… you know that there’s a limit to everything. If you are smart, you can push that limit higher. But, there’s still a limit.

Is humanity smart?

Look around you.

Do you see smart people in charge?

Right. So, the ‘limit’ won’t be pushed as high as it can go, which leaves us with this question:

How many people can survive on Earth, when morons are in control and the oil is gone?

Well, there was a billion before oil. The advent of oil allowed us to learn a lot of cool stuff – most of which requires oil to be cool. But, our planet is being run by morons.

Yes, I believe that we can sustain our current population of 7.6 billion people, without oil or coal, if everyone works together and is smart. But, history shows us that people don’t work together, and smart people are never allowed to be in charge.

So, how many people can survive on a planet without oil or coal, and with morons in charge?

My most optimistic guess is about half of what we have right now.

Can you imagine what the world would be like, when we kill each other, to the point where half of the world’s population is dead?

And, before you tell me that this is years away, let me remind you that the killing starts when one nation with weapons starts running out of what it considers to be its right. America has already run out of most of its oil, and is subsisting on imports and useless fracking. America has the best weapons on the planet. It is already the source of 90% of the worlds pornography and heroin.

What do you think America will do, when lack of oil becomes a problem?

What will other countries with weapons do?


I truly hope that you’ll be ready for this

A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished.Proverbs 22:3


If you find a flaw in my reasoning, have a question, or wish to add your own viewpoint, leave a comment on the website. Your input is truly welcome.


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