It didn’t take the gift of prophecy to tell you that Crimea would secede from Ukraine and join the Russian Federation. That was an easy move on the part of Russia, which was why it was one of the early decisions by Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. Of course, we were originally expecting something else, which is yet another reason why he chose Crimea to begin his confrontation with the Euro-American offensive in Russia’s Ukrainian backyard.
Well, Putin will play his natural gas ‘trump card’, eventually. But, he will do it at a time and place where he gets the most benefit. And, THAT moment in time will be during the winter of 2014/2015.
Do you think that it was a coincidence that the West staged their coup for late February?
Of course not. We don’t do coincidence theory here. That’s for the mainstream media.
So, what’s next?
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Next Moves – Algeria
Natural Gas is an interesting commodity. It’s difficult to transport and difficult to store. It takes years and years of infrastructure development to get it from point A to point B, but there’s a lot of it, and it’s relatively easy to get out of the ground.
Unfortunately, there’s no new natural gas infrastructure getting ready to go online, anytime soon.
So, why did the US and Europe choose this moment in time to start this war now?
Good question, and we’ll answer that as we go along, but let’s talk a bit about Europe’s vulnerable situation vis-à-vis natural gas.
European Natural Gas Vulnerability
Remember when I said that Europe gets 30% of her natural gas from Russia?
The rest of Europe’s natural gas comes from Norway and Algeria – with some from the Netherlands and a few smaller sources.
Do you think that Algeria is a very stable place?
I don’t think so, either. They have terrorist problems. The attack on the Amanas Gas facility in Algeria, in January of 2013 severely damaged gas production – when 30 terrorists attacked the facility and held foreign nationals hostage. To make matters worse, Algeria has been having problems with declining output.
Do you think that it might be possible for Russia to use Algerian rebels to turn off the natural gas coming from Algeria?
You can bet that he can – and will. Getting jihadis to run around and blow up things, isn’t a very hard thing to do. And, there are those big natural gas pipes going from Algeria through Tunisia.
Is Tunisia a very stable place?
Remember that the Arab Spring started in Tunisia. It wouldn’t take much of an investment on Russia’s part to convinces jihadis to blow up pipelines in Tunisia.
To see an example of how effective terrorists can be in shutting off the flow of natural gas, all you need to do is look at the Sinai. Terrorists have been blowing up pipelines there, several times a year.
Then, there are the natural gas pipelines that go underwater to Italy and Spain.
What do you think would happen to that pipeline, if someone ‘accidentally’ dropped something explosive on top of that underwater pipe?
Accidents happen. What a coincidence.
You also need to know that Europe has a very inadequate storage capacity for natural gas, and while this winter was mild for Europe, no one can guarantee that the same will happen next year.
All of this means that the US and Europe have about six months to deal with this natural gas vulnerability. The problem is that this isn’t the only weakness that the US and the EU suffer from. Not by a long shot.
Are you ready for this?
(Seriously, think about clicking that link.)
If you find a flaw in my reasoning, have a question, or wish to add your own viewpoint, leave a comment. Your input is truly welcome.
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