History runs in cycles. Life runs in cycles. Investments have cycles. Everything, in fact, runs according to some form of cycle. Anyone who says otherwise is a fool.
In fact, fools have done an incredible amount of damage to investors by loudly proclaiming the end of cycles. There’s always some idiot proclaiming that stocks will keep going up, just before they crash. And, once they crash, the same idiot will often be heard saying that they will never go up.
You might say that there is a cycle to idiocy, too.
Well, there’s yet another cycle that you must pay particular attention to:
Subscribe to The Shock Letter and receive my articles in your inbox:
Our Last Good Summer – 2015
Ever since I began to wake up to how bad things really were, in 2011, I’ve been trying to figure out WHEN everything really falls apart. And, every year, I’ve been wondering if that year would be our last good one.
In fact, just a couple months ago, Bix Weir and Harvey Organ went out on a limb and said that everything would fall apart by the end of 2014 – a little over a month and a half from now. They still could be right, but Bix is already starting to edge back from this prediction.
Were Bix and Harvey wrong to sound the alarm over what could happen over the coming months?
No. I don’t think so.
Being Ready Early Is Good
Because something REALLY awful is coming, and if you jump too early, that’s okay. ‘Early Jumpers’ will find themselves to have been ahead of the game. And, with all that’s coming, being ahead of the game is a really, really good idea.
Now, there are some of you who want someone to give a date so that you can have as much fun as you can before an awful future hits. You might be wanting to maximize your income. You might want to get as much profit out of your investments. You might want to get in one last family vacation.
If so, you are a fool.
And, unfortunately, that’s most of us.
Better 5 Years Early Than 5 Minutes Late
When dealing with an unimaginable future, it’s better to be…
…five years early than five minutes late.
Seriously, folks. Never play chicken with God. He rules the road, and He WILL run over you.
So, get your poop in a group and prepare for really bad times.
Having said that, it is still instructive to make our best guess about WHEN it will happen. And, if you backed me into a corner and demanded WHEN it all falls apart, I would say…
Okay, that’s not a date. That’s a person, and a somewhat annoying person, at that – since he has this knack for being always right about certain things. And, one of the things that he seems to be right about is cycles in economic confidence.
Years ago, he discovered that every economy in the world follows an 8.6 year cycle, from peak-to-peak or trough-to-trough. When an economy hits a top and starts down, that economy won’t hit another top until 8.6 years later.
He also noticed that these cycles weren’t numbered in years or months, but days:
He developed a model to describe that observation and to help predict future turns in the economy. That model is called:
The Economic Confidence Model, or ECM.
Martin has been uncannily accurate with his ECM, which is why I am paying attention to it.
When it comes to when an economy turns direction, I listen to what Martin says. And, I’m willing to extend my favorable view of his abilities to his analysis of other cycles.
But, when he gets into other areas unrelated to cycles… not so much.
I find his analysis of the cycles of war and internal conflict to be compelling, but he is dismissive about the idea of precious metals manipulation, which I find to be strange. However, I’m not interested in his views on Gold or Silver. I just want to know when the economic system collapses.
The End Begins In 2015
Martin’s answer is:
October 1st, 2015
The longer answer will include an interim bottom by October 28th, 2016, with a small recovery that will end on November 25th 2017. And, a final bottom will arrive by January 19th, 2020.
Here’s a picture:
And, you can see an earlier part of the graph here:
I originally saw the above graph here:
That was an article that he wrote on September 26, 1999, and the above graph uncannily predicted – ahead of time – the rise and fall of our economies. It’s more than a little shocking to see such accuracy.
In fact, I don’t want to believe that we are so predictable, but apparently we are.
Lord willing, I’ll be able to discuss the ramifications of Martin Armstrong’s Economic Confidence model over the next few days.
But, for now, just consider the Summer of 2015 to be the last good summer that any of us may ever have.
I truly hope that you’ll be ready for this
(That’s a link. There’s not much time left.)
A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished. – Proverbs 22:3
If you find a flaw in my reasoning, have a question, or wish to add your own viewpoint, leave a comment on the website. Your input is truly welcome.
Click the following link and SHOCK your inbox with The Shock Letter: